Mortgage Nation: The 2004 Australian Election

By Marian Simms And John Warhurst Eds, Bentley: API Network, 2005, 408 pages, paperback, $50.00. Reviewed by Eve Vincent in the July 2006 issue.

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Mortgage Nation takes its title from an article of the same name by George Megalogenis, published in the Weekend Australian in the aftermath of the 2004 election. Megalogenis' analysis is cited approvingly by Malcolm Mackerras in Mackerras' contribution to Mortgage Nation the book: both commentators argue that interest rates provide the single most decisive explanation for the Coalition's thrashing of Latham-led Labor at the 2004 polls.

Mackerras, via Megalogenis, points to a table that ranks electorates according to 'the proportion of dwellings being purchased'. He finds that 'the average swing to the Coalition in the seventy-five most-mortgaged seats was 2.5%, while the average swing in the least-mortgaged seats was 1.1%'. Bricks and mortar mattered, he concludes, to an electorate whose interest-in-politics-rates are low.

If the 2001 'Tampa election' was about fear and protecting the nation space, then the 2004 election -- this overarching analysis suggests -- was about a more localised kind of worry.

Not so, according to Clive Bean and Ian McAllister's essay, which follows Mackerras'. Rejecting the interest rate explanation as a popular myth, Bean and McAllister find that the 2004 election turned on evaluations of the major-party leaders, global issues such as terrorism, and national issues such as health policy and taxation. The presidential-style campaigning on the part of both major parties and the media's receptivity to this central personality contest is an observation common to many Mortgage Nation contributors. Further, Bean and McAllister argue that Labor won the health debate, but only narrowly, and the Coalition successfully fuelled fears that a Labor government would mean higher taxes. Bean and McAllister draw on Australian Election Study (AES) survey data for their explanation.

If Bean and McAllister are correct, why is it that Labor circles, particularly, fastened on the interest rate explanation in the post-election period? How might we explain the coexistence of these two confident interpretations, both based on 'hard data', and draw together voter attitude survey results, the interest rate scare campaign, the voting patterns of the 'mortgage belt', and the political sympathies of the analysts themselves? These are interesting questions that arise out of reading Mortgage Nation. However, in terms of critical, meaning-based or society-based discussions this collection offers only snapshots or starting points: it's a resource rather than a good read.

Mortgage Nation begins by noting that the 2004 election campaign was long and gruelling for all involved and no overall theme or central story emerged to be told about it. As a result, Mortgage Nation is a collection of brief, discrete and figure-heavy analyses of the campaign; state and region-specific studies; introductory pieces on social constituencies; and possible interpretations. Local contests and variables are emphasised throughout. The chapter on Tasmania is especially interesting, in light of the significance of the forest interest.

The parties also offer their all too predictable perspectives. Brian Loughnane, writing for the Liberals, is smug. Tim Gartrell, writing for the ALP, struggles with, and ultimately seems to disavow, the task of analysis. Gartrell pleads instead for Labor unity and a commitment to finding the 'winning formula'. Katrina Willis, writing for the Greens, fails to convince that her party wasn't disappointed by its showing, which fell well short of speculation. Andrew Bartlett, writing for the Democrats, is, of course, demoralised and it's hard not to wince along with him: 'Regardless of whether the [Democrats campaign] messages were the right ones, the Democrats were not able to get them through to the voting public in the face of an uninterested media and a very limited advertising budget'. If the parties' perspectives offer anything it's confirmation that media-driven politics is all strategy, no soul.

There's a lot of material in Mortgage Nation, and personal interests will determine which chapters are of most use. I enjoyed Carol Johnson's essay 'The Ideological Contest: Neo-Liberalism versus New Labor'. Johnson is perceptive where Margaret Simon's excellent Quarterly Essay about Mark Latham fell down. Johnson outlines that Latham's analysis of power -- the inequitable distribution of cultural and social capital between 'insiders and outsiders' -- implicitly accepts Howard's neo-liberal view that Labor under Keating was beholden to inner-city 'elites' and special interests. Johnson provides a brief genealogy of ideas, teasing out the meaning for example of Latham's ladder of opportunity. Latham's ladder is based on a view that 'downplays the disadvantage of social groups in favour of emphasising individual capabilities and aspirations'. This hints at some crucial, deeper questions for Labor: will this approach simply finish the job John Howard started by driving a wedge between its shrinking traditional, suburban, working-class base and the righteous 'insiders' that continue to deliver it seats?

I've barely mentioned Howard in this review, but he sits at the centre of this work. Mortgage Nation's entertaining front cover is a comment in itself: Howard in his running gear stands on a pedestrian island with a road stretching out and up over his should. 'Form one lane' say the signs; conformity and homogeneity are the messages.

Citation

• Eve Vincent. 'Review: Mortgage Nation: The 2004 Australian Election by Marian Simms and John Warhurst eds' [online]. Network Review of Books (Perth, Australian Public Intellectual Network), July 2006. Availability: <please cite the web address here> ISSN 1833-0932. [accessed 19 June 2013].

Back Cover Blurb

• This comprehensive study of the historic win by the Howard CoalitionGovernment is the fourth collaborative venture between Marian Simmsand John Warhurst. In their introduction and overview Simms and Warhurstprovide a comprehensive account of politics between the 2001 and 2004elections, including the delicate balancing act in the Senate, the impact ofexternal factors, like the US Alliance, and internal factors like the troubledstate of the Labor Party; and conclude with an analysis of the surprisingaftermath of the election.
  
  This book is divided into five parts. The first part provides analyses of thecampaign, and is framed by John Warhurst's detailed 'week to week' overviewof the long six weeks. The second part provides 'insider' perspectives on thecampaign. An important feature of this book, it provides insights from thosekey players who were at the centre of devising the campaigns and includeschapters by representatives from the Coalition, Labor, the Australian Democratsand the Greens. The third part reminds us that, as a federation, trends inAustralia are rarely national but vary between, and at times within, the Statesand Territories. The fourth part of this volume, on social constituencies,discusses the role of gender, ethnicity and immigration, religion, and ruraland regional interests. The final section covers the election results and theirinterpretation.
  
  Contributions by David Adams, Andrew Bartlett, Clive Bean, Rodney Cavalier,Peter Chen, Brian Costar, Jennifer Curtin, Nick Economou, Tim Gartrell,Murray Goot, Marcus Haward, Simon Jackman, Dean Jaensch, Carol Johnson,James Jupp, Brian Loughnane, Malcolm Mackerras, Haydon Manning, IanMcAllister, Tony McCall, Narelle Miragliotta, Robert Phiddian, Marian Sawer,Campbell Sharman, Marian Simms, Elaine Thompson, Ian Ward, John Warhurst,Katrina Willis, Dennis Woodward, Sally Young.

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